Panel Participants:
Lieutenant General (Retd.) Benjamin Hodges, Pershing Chair in Strategic Studies, Center for European Policy Analysis
Linas Kojala, Director of the Eastern Europe Studies Centre, Lithuania
Matti Anttonen, Permanent State Secretary at the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland
Prof James Henry Bergeron, Political Advisor, NATO Allied Maritime Command
Moderator:
Edward Lucas, Non-resident Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis
The strategic situation in the Baltic Sea Region remains complicated. Russian hybrid warfare, Chinese activities against Lithuania, the lack of clarity towards US support, and the crisis of Belarus are all pertinent crises that are relevant to the security of the region.
The first discussant responds by outlining that security in the Baltic Sea Region is the best it has been since the Cold War. It is not ideal, but better due to increased awareness among allies about the importance of the region. Sweden placing troops on Gotland island showed that they are taking the threat seriously. The deployment of army and equipment by the US into Poland is also a significant commitment. The frequency of exercises has increased dramatically, with a lot investment from major Western powers. There are improvements in mobility as well as awareness in its importance.
There are many areas that are need of improvement, however. Most importantly, there is lack of unity in the recognized threats to the region, as well as the severity of the threat. The sense of urgency also varies – the Germans are concerned that the Balts will start a conflict, while the Balts are worried about German softening towards their neighbor. This has significant spillover effects in terms of gradualization of military capacity. There is also a problem with intelligence sharing, but as the priorities of countries differ, so does investment in joint efforts. A lack of trust s also a worrying issue, but it underlies the previous. Lastly, the biggest vulnerability remains a lack of air and missile defense, especially in light of agreement that Russia would launch missiles against civilian targets in Europe. Though many countries have their own air-defense systems, they lack unity and are focused on defending military targets.
A discussant also brought up a lack of training to failure. Without doing exercises that go to failure, weaknesses cannot be addressed properly. This needs to be changed to ensure that the growing number of trainings are useful. There are headquarters, but the scope of what they are doing is limited by their limited scope – no single unit is accountable for the overall security strategy coordination of divisions in the Baltic Sea Region, which creates vulnerabilities for the Kremlin to exploit.
Ultimately, the discussants find that Western allies have begun taking the geopolitical shifts seriously and more coherence has been becoming apparent. However, difficulties remain in the operational details that are tied to a lack of agreement on broader objectives of security cooperation. In this sense it is important to draw certain new bright lines of cooperation that move the standard toward greater security in the region, which takes into account the new hybrid warfare methods, but also the broader spectrum of the need to support the eastern partnership countries, that are directly tied to the security of the Baltic Sea Region itself.