February 24th and the beginning of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine marked a system-changing event in the international order. Questions of Great Power competition, interdependence & geopolitics, as well as the state of the global rules-based order as a whole, are more poignant than they have been in a long time. What are the dynamics of the relations between the US, EU, China and Russia?
In this discussion, panelists Mercy A. Kuo (Executive Vice President at Pamir Consulting, Columnist at The Diplomat), Nick Redman (Director of Analysis at Oxford Analytica) and Robert Lee (Office Director for European Union and Regional Affairs at U.S. Department of State) discuss:
-How meaningful is the “rules-based world order” in 2022? Do we live in an era of international disorder and Great Power tension?
-Chinese vs. Russian authoritarianism
-What are the West’s carrots & sticks to use against its competitors?
-Updating international rules: do we have the mechanisms to do so?
-Collaboration, Competition & Confrontation: Is Confrontation beginning to dominate?
-The New Cold War between the US and China
-How can Europe become a more significant player in the international order?
Moderator: Bobo Lo, Independent International Relations Analyst
00:00 Introducing the topic & panelists
1:40 The main questions
6:30 Has Putin’s invasion of Ukraine served to unwittingly revive the principles of the international order?
11:50 How meaningful is the divide between democracies and authoritarian regimes? Where does the Global South fit into it?
15:58 Is a unified world order sustainable?
18:00 Is “managed strategic competition” between Washington and Beijing possible? Is confrontation inevitable?
22:15 Managing the geopolitical risks emanating from China
24:45 Are Russia & China really trying to export their authoritarianism, or merely exploit other countries?
27:00 The future of transatlantic relations. The West is back – but for how long?
35:40 Will the US commit to a rules-based international order when it interferes with its interests?
39:00 What tools does the West have at its disposal moving forwards? Carrots & sticks
46:50 The West’s image problem & China as a “responsible stakeholder” – what place in the global order will the US allow China even if it “behaves well”?
56:45 Quantum supremacy – how afraid should we be if China wins the race?
58:05 The end of the next decade: how will the US-China relationship look like? Will there be an international order or global disorder? Where will Russia be?
59:30 How does the Russian invasion of Ukraine impact China’s ambitions to become the global hegemon?