Since the beginning of the War in Ukraine, with the sanctions levied against Russia and its diplomatic isolation, there have been talks of the formation of a new Iron Curtain. While plenty has been said about the military aspects of this isolation, how long can Russian society remain behind an Iron Curtain?
In this discussion, panelists H.E. Māris Riekstiņš (Ambassador of Latvia to Russia), Kadri Liik (Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations), Prof Sergei Medvedev (Professor at Briva Universitate in Riga, Affiliated Professor at Charles University in Prague) and Prof Gulnaz Sharafutdinova (Professor of Russian Politics at King’s Russia Institute at King’s College London) discuss:
-How Russia’s attitudes towards the West shifted in the leadup to the war
-What is the atmosphere in Russia?
-What will happen in Russia if Ukraine manages to regain their territory up to pre-February 24th borders?
-The war as a continuation of 1917 and 1991
-Will Putin be able to stay in power?
-Mobilization & Depoliticization in Russia
-War as Russia’s “national idea”
-Will the political system of Russia collapse when Putin is gone? Will Russia as a whole cease to exist?
-Is Russia a fascist state?
Moderator: Arkady Ostrovsky, Russia and Eastern Europe Editor for the Economist
00:00 Introducing the topic & panelists
2:55 Introducing the questions
4:20 What is the current atmosphere in Moscow like?
8:10 How has the mood in Russia changed since the 21st of September and the “Partial mobilization”?
10:10 If Ukrainian forces continue to advance & liberate territory up to February 24th borders, how will that impact Russian politics & Putin? Changing our thinking about the war, The 2022 invasion as a continuation of 1917 and 1991.
20:30 Is this Putin’s war? Is it Russia’s war? What does Putin need to do to stay in power?
27:20 How is Russia engaging its depoliticized society?
29:25 War as an essential part of Russia’s “national idea” & identity
31:05 How successful will the mobilization be? How long does Putin have left?
35:00 Is there a lack of direction for Russia’s overall political system & succeeding Putin compared to the USSR and the death of Stalin?
37:50 Ambassador Māris Riekstiņš: If writing a telegram that a lot would hinge on, what would it say about the end of the war & whether this is Putin’s war?
40:35 If Putin attempts to turn the “Special Military Operation” into a new “Great Patriotic War,” what are the chances he will succeed? 43:35 Can any Russian leader survive visible defeat on the battlefield?
45:25 The 7 changes that have to take place in Russia after the war
46:45 If Putin survives the war, can he turn Russia into an Iran-like state?
50:00 Russia in 2028 – what will it be like?
53:30 To what extent have people began decoupling Russian identity from the overarching historical identity of incorporating other people’s history into their own, due to this war?
55:20 Why are Ramadan Kadyrov and Yevgeniy Prigozhin allowed to blatantly violate rule of law?
56:30 Is Russia fascist? If not, will it arrive soon?
1:00:30 What are the preconditions of Russia falling apart?
1:02:08 What if Russia simply implodes into itself and becomes a failed state on the border of Europe?